European bourses are displaying a tentatively firm tone after inheriting a sluggish performance out of Asia, as recent poorly-received economic reports from the US and China continue to weigh on sentiment and investors look ahead to key jobs data later in the week.

 

Gold is shrugging off a stronger dollar, while the market’s cautious tone is encouraging funds to move into government fixed income. Industrial commodities are mixed.

 

The FTSE All-World equity index is down 0.1 per cent as the FTSE Eurofirst 300 adds 0.3 per cent and US index futures suggest the S&P 500 will gain 4 points to 1,831.

 

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 average fell 0.6 per cent following a 2.4 per cent fall in its first trading day of the year on Monday, and Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.2 per cent.

 

In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi Composite added 0.3 per cent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.1 per cent. In China, the Shanghai Composite was lower for much of the session, in danger of recording a fourth straight decline to a four-month low after the latest surveys on the country’s manufacturing and service sectors had disappointed traders.

 

The SCi eventually rallied to finish up 0.1 per cent but its cautious meanderings exemplify what has been a generally timid start to 2014 for global risk assets.

For example, after finishing New Year’s eve at a record close of 1,848, Wall Street’s S&P 500 has suffered mild losses for the first three trading days of the year, with Monday’s dip coming after a closely watched services sector survey missed expectations and showed the first drop in new orders, a forward-looking component, since 2009.

 

The US Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index slipped to 53.0 last month from 53.9 in November. That said, the focus for many observers – ahead of the release on Friday of the December non-farm payrolls – was a solid rise in the employment sub-index.

 

The health of the US labour market will be a major determinant of the pace at which the Federal Reserve tapers its stimulus programme. The Fed announced in December it would reduce quantitative easing by $10bn to $75bn a month, putting upward pressure on longer-term interest rates.

 

But 10-year Treasury yields are struggling to move decisively above the 3 per cent mark, and on Tuesday are down 1 basis point to 2.95 per cent, while equivalent duration Bunds and Japanese government bonds are fractionally softer at 1.90 per cent and 0.70 per cent respectively.

 

Such wide interest rate differentials can lend support to the buck and it is up 0.1 per cent to Y104.32 versus the yen but barely changed against the euro at $1.3630 as the single currency is supported by news that German unemployment fell unexpectedly. Still, the dollar index is up 0.1 per cent.

 

A firmer greenback tends to hurt gold, but the bullion has had a pretty sturdy start to the year as investors perceive “bargain hunting” from Asian consumers. The yellow metal is up $1 on the day to $1,238 an ounce and now faces the challenge of breaking above its recent downtrend and its 50-day moving average of about $1,245.

 

Renewed concerns about oil supplies out of Libya see Brent crude add 65 cents to $107.38 a barrel, while lingering doubts about the strength of Chinese demand nudges copper down 0.4 per cent to $3.40 a pound.

 

Source: FT

 

 

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