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Gold drops below $1,200 on taper news
International - Finance 20.12.2013
Gold traded below $1,200 a troy ounce for the time
since June as the US Federal Reserve took the first baby steps away from a historic era of monetary
stimulus.
Bullion fell
as much as 2 per cent to $1,193.60 in the wake of the Fed’s decision to pare
back its asset purchases by $10bn a month, starting in January.
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Ultra-loose monetary policy helped drive bullion prices to record highs in recent years. The precious metal gained more than 125 per cent between 2009 and its peak of $1,920, reached in 2011.
But on
Wednesday, the Fed said the US economy was finally strong enough for it to
start scaling back its massive bond buying programme.
Expectations
of an end to the US monetary stimulus programme has knocked more than 25 per
cent off the gold price this year, its biggest drop in 30 years. Most of the
selling has come from western investors in gold exchange traded
funds (ETFs), which have seen more than 800 tonnes of outflows this year.
Given that
weakness, many analysts were surprised by the size of Thursday’s retreat,
particularly as the Fed said interest rates were likely to stay close to zero
“well past the time” the US jobless rate declines below 6.5 per cent. Low
interest rates are important because they reduce the opportunity cost of
holding gold, a non-yielding asset.
“I was not
expecting gold to do very much [after the Fed announcement]. Every time that
[Fed Chariman Ben] Bernanke has sneezed this year the [gold] market has caught
a cold,” said Rhona O’Connell, head of metals research and forecasts at Thomson
Reuters GFMS. “I thought the market was desensitised.”
HSBC analyst
James Steel said the decline seemed “out of step” with the actual taper
announcement. “But the US dollar has rallied and I suspect that is weighing on
the gold price.”
Mr Steel said
he would not be surprised if the gold market recovered some of its lost ground
once the market had fully digested the Fed statement and the Christmas holiday
period was out of the way.
“These are
very attractive levels for price sensitive buyers,” he said. “At the retail
level, in places like China, this pull back will be greeted pretty bullishly.”
However,
traders said if the price remained below $1,200 for an extended period it could
trigger a renewed wave of selling by western investors.
Elsewhere,
silver, which usually moves in lockstep with gold, fell 2.7 per cent to $19.19.
However, there were more resilient performances from other precious metals.
Platinum, for example, was down 1 per cent at $1,317 a troy ounce, while
palladium was off 0.3 per cent at $693.
“Sometimes
that’s a sign the market is getting oversold,” said Mr Steel. One would have
expected palladium to be down $18 or so with a drop in gold like this. But it
isn’t.”
Source: FT